AIDS via trade?

Alongside Justin Wolfers and Bryan Caplan, Emily Oster is amongst my favorite young rising-star economists. Via Tyler Cowen, I learn that she has a new working paper (PDF) out. Here's the abstract:

I generate new data on HIV incidence and prevalence in Africa based on inference from mortality rates. I use these data to relate economic activity (specifically, exports) to new HIV infections in Africa and argue there is a significant and large positive relationship between the two: a doubling of exports leads to as much as a quadrupling in new HIV infections. This relationship is consistent with a model of the epidemic in which truckers and other migrants have
higher rates of risky behavior, and their numbers increase in periods with greater exports. I present evidence suggesting that the relationship between exports and HIV is causal and works, at least in part, through increased transit. The result has important policy implications, suggesting (for example) that there is significant value in prevention focused on these transit-oriented groups. I apply this result to study the case of Uganda, and argue that a decline in exports in the early 1990s in that country appears to explain between 30% and 60% of the decline in HIV infections. This suggests that the success of the Ugandan education campaign against HIV - the ABC campaign - has been overstated.

I first learned about her work by reading her paper (PDF) on the economic analysis of AIDS. After finishing reading it, I wrote the word "wow" on the front of the printout. The copy lies still in my office cubicle.

A little more about Emily can be learned here (a light read by hers in Esquire magazine; if you click this month (October 2007), then you'll also get a peek at Charlize Theron...), and here. She can also be seen giving a talk at the TED conference.